Friday, July 2, 2010

SPX's Wave A Down of Wave C/Wave 5 Down Probably Didn't Bottom on Thursday 7-1-10


SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Big
Wave A Down of Wave C/Wave 5 Down (Since 6-21-10's 1131.23 Cycle High) Probably Didn't Bottom on Thursday 7-1-10, see . 6-29-10's extreme conditions (volatility/-3.10% and volume/
5.30+ billion shares
), plus, additional downside since then (-1.01% on 6-30, -0.32% on 7-1, and -0.47% on 7-2), typically point to an imminent cycle low, but, not necessarily in this sick market, LOL (Who wanted to be long over the long holiday weekend?). Note today 7-2-10's bearish red (close below the open) candle with a modestly bearish spike. SPX's volume today was a very light pre holiday 3.291 billion shares, which is also probably a bearish sign for Tuesday.

Negative/bearish breadth yesterday 7-1-10 and today 7-2-10 suggests that the big SPX Wave A Downcycle since 6-21-10 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances. Also, VIX fell -4.86% yesterday vs SPX down -0.32%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early today 7-2-10. VIX fell -8.34% today 7-2-10 vs SPX down -0.47%, which is a very bearish indication for early Tuesday 7-6-10.

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10,
and, Wave 4 up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is (correctly was already) a very bearish sign),
all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

It looks like (likely scenario) SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in this Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle since 6-21-10 (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.
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