Friday, July 9, 2010

SPX's Bounce Since 7-1-10 Appears to be Peaking


SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) B
ounce Since 7-1-10 (Obviously) Appears to be Peaking, see . Whenever a huge spike move like this occurs, it's almost always important peaking action.
SPX's
likely counter trend move since 7-1-10 is doing Wave 5 up now as expected, and, may peak early Monday 7-12-10 (there's an up down up down up pattern since early 7-1-10), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,fs,fs,w14&c=. Watch the upside gap/magnet at 1092.04.

The close very near the session cycle high today 7-9-10, and, well below average volume, about 3.00+ billion shares, suggest that SPX probably didn't peak today. Volume should spike on Monday/soon (confirm the likely price peak/huge spike move cycle high) as SPX probably peaks. The 5 day WMT/XOM Lead Indicators correctly pointed to strength since 7-1-10, see http://yhoo.it/aMhVGZ.

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) B
ounce Since 7-1-10 Looks Like Wave 4 & Wave B Up of the Big Wave C/Wave 5 Down Move Since 6-21-10's 1131.23 cycle high (NOTE that Wave A of Wave C/Wave 5 down bottomed on 7-1-10), see .

Negative/bearish breadth on 7-1-10, 7-2-10, and 7-6-10 suggests that the big SPX Wave C/Wave 5 Downcycle since 6-21-10 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$nyad. Also, VIX fell -4.86% on 7-1-10 vs SPX down -0.32%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-2-10. VIX fell -8.34% on 7-2-10 vs SPX down -0.47%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-6-10. VIX fell -1.56% on 7-6-10 vs SPX up +0.54%, VIX fell -9.48% vs SPX up +3.13% on 7-7-10, VIX fell -4.21% vs SPX up +0.94% yesterday 7-8-10, and, VIX fell -2.84% vs SPX up +0.72% today 7-9-10, which is a very bearish indication for early Monday 7-12-10 (Really, once Wave 5 up peaks; cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are primary, indicators are secondary.). I'll be looking to trade SPX short via the SH ETF and the long Bond long via the TLT ETF.

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10,
and, Wave 4 up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is (correctly was already) a very bearish sign),
all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

It looks like (likely scenario) SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in this Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle since 6-21-10 (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.
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