Saturday, July 10, 2010

SPX's Elliott Wave Count For The Intermediate Term Downcycle Since 4-26-10's 1219.80 Cycle High


SPX's
(S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)
Elliott Wave Count For the Intermediate Term Downcycle Since 4-26-10's 1219.80 Cycle High:

SPX has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, which clearly looks like the Wave A Down cycle low in both the Daily and Weekly View charts,
and, Wave 4/Wave B up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is (correctly was already) a very bearish sign),
all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see the Daily and Weekly View charts at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

The current SPX
(S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Upcycle since 7-1-10 is probably/appears to be the counter trend Wave B Up of Wave C/Wave 5 Down (since the 1131.23 cycle high on 6-21-10). The Elliott Wave count looks pretty clear, and, it jives with bearish COT (Commitments of Traders) data. The savvy non contrarian SPX Commercial Traders have engaged in much more short covering in recent weeks, than adding to long positions.

It looks like (likely scenario) SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in this Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle since 6-21-10 (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.
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