Tuesday, July 6, 2010

SPX's Bounce Since 7-1-10 Looks Like Wave 4 & Wave B Up of the Big Wave C/Wave 5 Down Move Since 6-21-10


SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) B
ounce Since 7-1-10 Looks Like Wave 4 & Wave B Up of the Big Wave C/Wave 5 Down Move Since 6-21-10's 1131.23 cycle high (NOTE that Wave A of Wave C/Wave 5 down bottomed on 7-1-10), see (Note the bearish medium spike today).
SPX's
likely counter trend move since 7-1-10 appears to have peaked, but, will probably try to do Wave 5 up early tomorrow 7-7-10 (there's an up down up down pattern since early 7-1-10), see http://yhoo.it/cz77F4. The 5 day WMT/XOM Lead Indicators correctly pointed to strength since 7-1-10, see http://yhoo.it/aMhVGZ.

Negative/bearish breadth on 7-1-10, 7-2-10, and today 7-6-10 suggests that the big SPX Wave C/Wave 5 Downcycle since 6-21-10 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances. Also, VIX fell -4.86% on 7-1-10 vs SPX down -0.32%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-2-10. VIX fell -8.34% on 7-2-10 vs SPX down -0.47%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early Today 7-6-10. VIX fell -1.56% today vs SPX up +0.54%, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow.

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10,
and, Wave 4 up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is (correctly was already) a very bearish sign),
all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

It looks like (likely scenario) SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in this Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle since 6-21-10 (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.
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