Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Rare Earth AREM.OB is Trying to Break Out on Weekly Chart
Rare Earth AREM.OB is Trying to Break Out on multi-year Weekly Chart, see the second Weekly View chart at http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=arem.
The #Euro Might Have Put in a Short Term Cycle High Today
The #Euro Might Have Put in a Short Term Cycle High Today (likely counter trend short term bounce the past four days), see http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=$xeu.
Major Holders of Rare Earth Stock Molycorp (MCP)
Major Holders of Rare Earth Stock Molycorp (MCP, http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=mcp), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=MCP+Major+Holders. There's something to the rare earth resources phenomenon.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Monday, December 27, 2010
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Friday, December 24, 2010
Let Me Lay a Little Big Picture NDX (NASDAQ 100) Elliott Wave on You
Let Me Lay a Little Big Picture NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=ndx) Elliott Wave on You, see the Yahoo maximum timeframe candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^NDX&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=w14,fs&c=.
The first NDX plunge after the March 2000 Secular Bull Market Cycle High was probably a Wave 1 Cycle Low in late 2000. Wave 2 up peaked in very late 2000 or very early 2001. Wave 3 Down (and probably Wave A Down of the Secular Bear Market since March 2000) appears to have bottomed in late 2002.
The late 2002 to October 2007 NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=ndx) Cyclical Bull Market is probably Wave 4 and Wave B Up of the Secular Bear Market since March 2000, assuming that the current NDX Major Upcycle since late 2008 doesn't take out the October 2007 Cycle High; if it does, then, this NDX Major Upcycle since late 2008 is Wave 4 and Wave B up (since late 2002) of the Secular Bear Market since March 2000 peaking in rollover mode versus the October 2007 Cycle High.
Either way, it looks like NDX is going to put in a modestly lower or possibly a modestly higher bearish double top with the October 2007 Cycle High, see the Yahoo maximum timeframe candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^NDX&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=w14,fs&c=. It looks like NDX either entered Wave 5 and Wave C Down of the Secular Bear Market since March 2000 in very late October 2007, or, is about to do so in the relatively near future.
Strong ACTC.OB Buying Came In Near the Session Cycle Low on Thursday
Strong ACTC.OB (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=actc) Buying Came In Near the Session Cycle Low on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ACTC.OB&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=w14,fs&c=.
I'll be looking to day trade ACTC.OB on Monday, along with MCP (wary of MCP right now, due to the daily chart (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=mcp), and, it appears to be rolling over on the five day chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MCP&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=w14,fs&c=).
.......China the Economic Bust
China the Economic Bust, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=000001.SS&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=w14,fs&c=. A picture really is worth a thousand words.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
What Does the Internet Think of the Stock Market?
What Does the Internet Think of the Stock Market? See http://www.whatdoestheinternetthink.net/index.php?s=stock+market&st=google.
Twitter Stock Market Sentiment
Twitter Stock Market Sentiment, see http://twittersentiment.appspot.com/search?query=stock+market.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Looks Like I Might Hit MCP (Molycorp) Early Tomorrow
Looks Like I Might Hit Rare Earth Resource Stock MCP (Molycorp, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=mcp) Early Tomorrow (day trade), see the five day intra day candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MCP&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=w14,fs&c=. Since mid-session MCP appears to have done an Elliott Wave down up down up, ending the session in a final Wave 5 down move. So, there might be an opportunity to day trade MCP long early tomorrow. Rare Earths REE and SHZ might/appear to have similar stories.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Sunday, December 19, 2010
VIX is Very Near an Extreme of Complacency
VIX (SPX Volatility Index) is Very Near an Extreme of Complacency, see the second Weekly View chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=vix.
In April 2010, when SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaked at 1219.80 on 4-26-10 (SPX recently exceeded that cycle high), then crashed to 1010.91 on 7-1-10, VIX hit an extreme of complacency at 15.23. On Friday 12-17-10 VIX hit an extremely complacent level of 15.46, which is an ominous bearish sign for SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the Market.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) Had a Major Volume Spike on Friday 12-17-10
NDX (NASDAQ 100) Had a Major Volume Spike on Friday 12-17-10, see the Daily View candlestick chart (volume bars are at the bottom) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=ndx. NDX volume spiked dramatically to 1.1257 billion shares on Friday 12-17-10, which was well above the 60 day EMA at 743.088 million shares, and, is probably a bearish peaking volume spike.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Looks Like the UltraShort Financials ETF SKF Will Pop on Monday
Looks Like the UltraShort Financials ETF SKF (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=skf) Will Pop on Monday, see the five day intra day candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=w14,fs&c=&s=skf. SKF appears to have completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern very late on Friday 12-17-10 (I made 5 cents/share on a late SKF day trade, that I tweeted at http://twitter.com/#!/tradethecycles), that began very early on Friday 12-17-10, and, SKF broke it's intra day downtrend very late in the session.
I'll be looking to day trade SKF again on Monday and pretty much every day where opportunities present themselves. The Dow Jones US Financials Index (DJUSFN) appears to have peaked/put in a Major Cycle High in April 2010 at 305.41, see the second Weekly View chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$djusfn.
Friday, December 17, 2010
The Long Bond ETF TLT Might Have Finally Bottomed
The Long Bond ETF TLT Might Have Finally Bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=tlt. Since the 107.89 Wave 3 Intermediate Term Cycle High in late August 2010 TLT has done an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, that might have bottomed at 90.47 on 12-15-10. Note the huge volume spike recently, which jives with an important cycle low occurring (volume spike confirms the inverse price spike).
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Closed-End Gold Fund With Better Tax Treatment A Better Bargain Than ETFs?
GTU/CEF also pays a very modest 0.10% annual dividend I believe.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
The US Dollar Might Have Bottomed Today, the Euro Might Have Peaked
The US Dollar Might Have Bottomed Today (bullish inverse spike on today's candle), the Euro Might Have Peaked (bearish red candle, indicating a close below the open); both bearish for the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=spx)/Market, see the USD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$usd, and, see the Euro at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$xeu.
Document Security Systems (DMC) Provides Protection From Leaks
Document Security Systems (DMC) Provides Protection From Leaks (from the likes of WikiLeaks), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DMC&ql=0, and, see the Daily & Weekly Candlestick charts at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=dmc.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Saturday, December 11, 2010
The Face on Mars Appears to Have Two Eyes, a Nose
The Face on Mars Appears to Have (despite the shadow, zoom in in your browser or at some site like http://www.picnik.com or application) Two Eyes, a Nose With Two Nostrils, a Mouth with Lips, etc see http://esamultimedia.esa.int/images/marsexpress/300-230906-3253-6-vk1-Cydonia_H.jpg. Apparently, if you can zoom in enough there are even teeth in the mouth. A huh a huh, lol.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Non-contrarian #SPX Commercial Traders Went Net Short by 88,893 #Futures Contracts the Past Few Months
Non-contrarian #SPX Commercial Traders Went Net Short by 88,893 #Futures Contracts the Past Few Months (bearish intermediate term sign), see about 2/3's of the way down at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm. Also, they traded net short in the five days ending 12-7-10 by 13,434 futures contracts, which is obviously a short term bearish sign.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Quantitative Easing Alert! Whooop Whooop Whooop!
Quantitative Easing Alert! Whooop Whooop Whooop!
Weekly Fed Credit = +$33.693 Billion on 12-8-10 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/)/+$426 Million on 12-1-10/+$24.277 Billion on 11-24-10/+$3.958 Billion on 11-17-10/+$8.470 Billion on 11-10-10/-$1.986 Billion on 11-3-10/-$1.039 Billion on 10-27-10/-$9.375 Billion on 10-20-10/+$8.599 Billion on 10-13-10/-$3.119 Billion on 10-6-10/+$1.154 Billion on 9-29-10/-$2.768 Billion on 9-22-10/+$2.676 Billion on 9-15-10/-$73 Million on 9-8-10/-$7.462 Billion on 9-1-10.
Yahoo Comment: "Pelosi and Reid are running the show. Obama is a "hood ornament""
Yahoo Comment:
"Pelosi and Reid are running the show. Obama is a "hood ornament" on the vehicle heading towards the cliff!
Term limits are needed in Congress and Pelosi will no longer be able to sleep with the gavel after New Years.
I cannot believe the arrogance and lies or the comparison to "hostage takers" or "terrorists" by the Democrats. They don't care about the American people and the losers are the ones pushing the hateful and destruction of America!"
Term limits are needed in Congress and Pelosi will no longer be able to sleep with the gavel after New Years.
I cannot believe the arrogance and lies or the comparison to "hostage takers" or "terrorists" by the Democrats. They don't care about the American people and the losers are the ones pushing the hateful and destruction of America!"
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Assange rape case spotlights Sweden's liberal laws
More evidence of the loony laws/things that can happen when Liberals are in power.
The CRB and DJIA Put in a Bearish Double Top Yesterday 12-7-10
The CRB and DJIA Put in a (both nearly perfect) Bearish Double Top Yesterday 12-7-10, with their November 2010 cycle highs, see CRB at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$crb, and, see the DJIA at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$indu.
The DJIA peaked on 11-5-10, and, it might/appears to be the Major Upcycle since March 2009 putting in a final Major Cycle High. The CRB peaked yesterday 12-7-10, and, it might/appears to be the Major Upcycle since February or March 2009 putting in a final Major Cycle High.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Saturday, December 4, 2010
SPX/Market Thoughts For Saturday 12-4-10
SPX (S & P 500 http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/Market Thoughts For Saturday 12-4-10:
The two most important SPX/market indicators, the Euro and the SPX Volatility Index (VIX), are very or extremely bearish on a short term, an intermediate term, and a long term basis. Also, the Euro appears to have put in an Intermediate Term Cycle High at 142.81 on 11-4-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$xeu. Once the short term Euro bounce peaks I'll be looking to trade SPX short via the SH ETF.
The five day Euro ETF FXE Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=ss&c=fxe. The three month Euro ETF FXE Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=ss&c=fxe. The two year Euro ETF FXE Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=ss&c=fxe.
The five day SPX Volatility Index (VIX) is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. The six month SPX Volatility Index (VIX) is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. The two year SPX Volatility Index (VIX) is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.
This past week SPX (S & P 500 http://bit.ly/i0nsT) had a big spike move, that appears to be the Upcycle since the recent 1173 cycle low peaking, and, since 8-27-10 SPX has had a huge gravity-defying spike move, with the huge VIX/fear spike from the 5-5-10 Flash Crash being a huge bullish factor, see http://goo.gl/fb/aYD76.
It's very doubtful that SPX would have taken out the 4-26-10 1219.80 cycle high were it not for the huge VIX/fear spike from the 5-5-10 Flash Crash, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. There's a good chance that SPX's Major Upcycle since 3-06-09's 666.79 Major Cycle Low will peak soon.
The non-contrarian SPX Commercial Traders went net short by 75,000+ futures contracts the past few months, see about 2/3's of the way down at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.
Quantitative Easing began again recently, which is a major bullish factor however. Weekly Fed Credit = +$426 Million on 12-1-10/+$24.277 Billion on 11-24-10/+$3.958 Billion on 11-17-10/+$8.470 Billion on 11-10-10/-$1.986 Billion on 11-3-10/-$1.039 Billion on 10-27-10/-$9.375 Billion on 10-20-10.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Thursday, December 2, 2010
The Euro vs SPX Lead Indicator is Extremely Bearish Recently
The Euro vs SPX Lead Indicator is Extremely Bearish Recently, it was -0.61% on 12-2, -0.94% on 12-1, -0.48% on 11-30, -0.70% on 11-29, -0.01% on 11-26, -1.76% on 11-24, -0.45% on 11-23, -0.31% on 11-22.
UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO) Elliott Wave Count
UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO) Elliott Wave Count, see the two year candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=EUO&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=w14,fs&c=. Since June's Intermediate Term Cycle High EUO did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, and, as usually happens, it also did an inverse 12345 down up down up down pattern (pattern within a pattern, usually what happens with downcycles), putting in an Intermediate Term Cycle Low on 11-4-10 at 17.93, with a major volume spike occurring at and near the bottom (see chart at link above).
So, the Euro turned bearish on an Intermediate Term Cycle basis on 11-4-10, which is bearish for SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=spx). Also, the six month Euro ETF FXE versus SPX Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=ss&c=fxe.
A Major Euro ETF FXE Volume Spike Occurred the Past Two Days
A Major Euro ETF FXE Volume Spike Occurred the Past Two Days, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=fxe. The likely (gap-filling) counter trend Euro ETF FXE bounce the past few days appears to be peaking, confirmed by the major volume spike.
The Euro ETF FXE has done a down up down up pattern since the 142.28 Intermediate Term Cycle High, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=fxe, and, is probably in the process of doing (the usual/typical) an Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern decline.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) gap-filling likely counter trend bounce of the past few days is probably peaking, and, SPX probably put in a Major Cycle High at 1227.08 (a double top or modestly higher high won't be surprising, especially since Quantitative Easing/massive Fed Credit began again recently) versus the 1228.74 Fibonacci target, rolling over dramatically versus the 1219.80 4-26-10 cycle high.
The five day #Euro ETF FXE vs #SPX Lead Indicator is extremely bearish; see http://yhoo.it/9zUFZc.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
The Euro vs SPX Lead Indicator is Extremely Bearish Recently
The Euro vs SPX Lead Indicator is Extremely Bearish Recently, it was -0.94% on 12-1, -0.48% on 11-30, -0.70% on 11-29, -0.01% on 11-26, -1.76% on 11-24, -0.45% on 11-23, -0.31% on 11-22.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Bernanke's Stepping on the Petal
Bernanke's Stepping on the Petal.
Daily Fed Credit = bullish $11.489 Billion today/on 11-30/$8.428 Billion on 11-29/$6.490 Billion on 11-26/$7.420 Billion on 11-24/$6.844 Billion on 11-23/$6.871 Billion on 11-22/$9.786 Billion on 11-19/$8.785 Billion on 11-18/$4.749 Billion on 11-16/$0 on 11-11 Veterans Day/$4.236 Billion on 11-10
Weekly Fed Credit = +$24.277 Billion on/5 days ending 11-24-10/+$3.958 Billion on 11-17-10/+$8.470 Billion on 11-10-10/-$1.986 Billion on 11-3-10/-$1.039 Billion on 10-27-10/-$9.375 Billion on 10-20-10/+$8.599 Billion on 10-13-10/-$3.119 Billion on 10-6-10
Monday, November 29, 2010
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Euro Focus on 12950 DailyFX
Euro Focus on 12950 DailyFX
The article's analysis jives with Euro ETF FXE filling downside gaps/magnets at 130.13 and 129.88.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
The VIX/Fear Spike From the Flash Crash Probably Led to the Modest SPX Upside Surprise
If it wasn't for the huge VIX (SPX Volatility Index)/fear spike that resulted from the May 5 Flash Crash, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, SPX's (S & P 500) Major Upcycle (since 3-6-09's 666.79 Major Cycle Low) probably would have peaked on 4-26-10 at 1219.80 instead of probably peaking at 1227.08 on 11-5-10. From VIX's 5-5-10 cycle low at 23.75 it spiked dramatically to 42.15 on 5-7-10, and, peaked at 48.20 on 5-21-10, more than doubling in about two weeks time.
It Looks Like the Financials (DJUSFN) Peaked in April, see the second Weekly View chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$djusfn, and, it looks like SPX (S & P 500) peaked on 11-5-10 at 1227.08 vs the 1228.74 Fib target (0.618 retrace of the 1576.09 to 666.79 decline), rolling over dramatically vs the 4-26-10 1219.80 cycle high, see the second Weekly View chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=spx.
The Reason Why the Euro (ETF FXE) is Such a Good Lead Indicator for SPX
The reason why the Euro (ETF FXE) is such a good Lead Indicator for SPX (S & P 500) is probably largely because of it's effect on corporate profitability, see the five day Euro ETF FXE versus SPX chart at http://yhoo.it/9zUFZc (can click on other available timeframes like 1 day, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, and max). As the Euro in US Dollar terms goes up significantly or substantially, then, the USA's corporate profitability is impacted in a significantly positive way, and, obviously, vice versa when the Euro declines significantly or substantially in US Dollar terms.
This however doesn't necessarily explain why it usually works surprisingly well even on an intra day or on a five day basis. It could be that, given the fragility of the USA's as well as Europe's (their ability to buy USA goods/services if the Euro declines in US Dollar terms, resulting in inflation) economy, that the Euro's correlation with SPX (S & P 500) is relatively high, so that, even on a short term and a very short term basis, it remains a good Lead Indicator most of the time.
The Euro's correlation with SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) the past 180 trading days (as of 11-26-10) is a relatively high +67.24%, see http://www.mrci.com/special/correl.htm (The correlation coefficients in the table must be squared in order to arrive at the correlation).
The Euro's correlation with the DJIA the past 180 trading days (as of 11-26-10) is an even higher +73.96%, which makes sense, because, the DJIA is a bit more dominated by large corporations (dependent on profits from Europe) than SPX and NDX are. I may consider trading DJIA ETFs like DIA and DOG. Ciao
Friday, November 26, 2010
$2.5 Trillion in Social Security Bonds Stored in Filing Cabinet
$2.5 Trillion in Social Security Bonds Stored in Filing Cabinet, see $2.5 trillion in Social Security bonds stored in filing ... .
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Check Out Supatcha Resources (SAEI.OB), You Betcha, LOL
Check Out Supatcha Resources (SAEI.OB), You Betcha, LOL, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=saei.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
