Tuesday, June 29, 2010

SPX's Likely Counter Trend Move Since 5-25-10's 1040.78 Cycle Low Peaked at 1131.23 on 6-21-10


SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10,
and, Wave 4 up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is a very bearish sign),
all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

The current
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)
downcycle since the 1131.23 cycle high on 6-21-10 is probably Wave 5 and Wave C down of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, Wave A of which may bottom tomorrow 6-30-10, because, market conditions (volatility and volume) have become extreme. SPX volume spiked dramatically today 6-29-10 to 5.30+ billion shares versus only 3.422
billion shares yesterday 6-28-10, and, SPX fell -3.10% today. VIX rose a bearish unusually large (rise in fear) +17.69% today, which points to early weakness tomorrow, and, probably points to additional downside.

It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in the this Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle since 6-21-10 (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.

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