China FX reserves soar past $3 trillion

China FX reserves soar past $3 trillion- Reuters

The US Dollar Appears to Have Bottomed

The US Dollar Appears to Have Bottomed, see the Daily and Weekly View charts at http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24usd. Since peaking at 88.71 in June 2010 (see the second Weekly View chart), the US Dollar has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern and an Elliott Wave inverse 12345 down up down up down pattern (pattern within a pattern), probably bottoming at 75.25 on March 22, 2011, though it still needs to follow through strongly to the upside and hit a clear buy signal/breakout.

The #Euro Might Have Put in a Short Term Cycle High Today

The #Euro Might Have Put in a Short Term Cycle High Today (likely counter trend short term bounce the past four days), see http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=$xeu.

Euro Focus on 12950 DailyFX

Euro Focus on 12950 DailyFX

The article's analysis jives with Euro ETF FXE filling downside gaps/magnets at 130.13 and 129.88.

The Reason Why the Euro (ETF FXE) is Such a Good Lead Indicator for SPX

The reason why the Euro (ETF FXE) is such a good Lead Indicator for SPX (S & P 500) is probably largely because of it's effect on corporate profitability, see the five day Euro ETF FXE versus SPX chart at http://yhoo.it/9zUFZc (can click on other available timeframes like 1 day, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, and max). As the Euro in US Dollar terms goes up significantly or substantially, then, the USA's corporate profitability is impacted in a significantly positive way, and, obviously, vice versa when the Euro declines significantly or substantially in US Dollar terms.

This however doesn't necessarily explain why it usually works surprisingly well even on an intra day or on a five day basis. It could be that, given the fragility of the USA's as well as Europe's (their ability to buy USA goods/services if the Euro declines in US Dollar terms, resulting in inflation) economy, that the Euro's correlation with SPX (S & P 500) is relatively high, so that, even on a short term and a very short term basis, it remains a good Lead Indicator most of the time.

The Euro's correlation with SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) the past 180 trading days (as of 11-26-10) is a relatively high +67.24%, see http://www.mrci.com/special/correl.htm (The correlation coefficients in the table must be squared in order to arrive at the correlation).

The Euro's correlation with the DJIA the past 180 trading days (as of 11-26-10) is an even higher +73.96%, which makes sense, because, the DJIA is a bit more dominated by large corporations (dependent on profits from Europe) than SPX and NDX are. I may consider trading DJIA ETFs like DIA and DOG. Ciao

BlackRock Founder Predicts $1.20 Euro

BlackRock founder predicts $1.20 euro

The Euro Appears to be a Good SPX Lead Indicator

The Euro Appears to be a Good SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=SPY&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=ss&c=fxe. The Euro (FXE is a Euro ETF) might have peaked on Thursday 11-4-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=fxe.

ETF Data Daily: UUP Gathers $58 Million

ETF Data Daily: UUP Gathers $58 Million IndexUniverse.com

I'm A Dollar Bull. Here's Why

I'm A Dollar Bull. Here's Why: at Forbes

Buffett's Favorite Indicator Points Down

Buffett's Favorite Indicator Points Down at Motley Fool

SPX is in Wave 5 Up of the Upcycle Since 6-8-10's 1042.17 Cycle Low

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is in Wave 5 Up of the Upcycle Since 6-8-10's 1042.17 Cycle Low, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The bearish red candles with a spike on 6-9-10 and 6-14-10 correspond to Wave 1 and Wave 3 cycle highs of the upcycle since 6-8-10's 1042.17 cycle low. Got Elliott Wave?

SPX Appears to be Headed for 900ish

It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in the upcoming Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, and, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The current upcycle since the 1040.78 cycle low on 5-25-10 is probably Wave 4 and Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high.

SPX Appears to be Headed for the 900 to 950 Area!

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low appears to be bearish funky counter trend action (it's a bearish looking candle pattern); it's probably Wave 4 (and Wave B) up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

The inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern (also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, read on) from 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high to 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low was probably only Wave A down! (and Waves 1, 2, and 3/down (1065.79) up (1173.57) down (1040.78), labeled on StockCharts chart) of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900 to 950 in the upcoming Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle (a preliminary target range, that might/probably will get revised some after I get the gaps, do Fibonacci analysis, and put more thought into it). I need to get the SPX downside gaps in that area.

SPX Barely Took Out 6-3-10's 1105.67 Cycle High Today

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) barely took out 6-3-10's 1105.67 cycle high today 6-14-10, but, the upcycle since 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low appears to be bearish funky counter trend action (it's a bearish looking candle pattern); it's probably Wave 4 (and Wave B) up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

It's OpEx (Options Expiration) Week, So, There's Likely to be Some High Volatility

It's OpEx (Options Expiration) week, so, there's likely to be some high volatility later this week.

The Upcycle Since 6-8-10's 1042.17 Cycle Low Probably Didn't Peak Yet

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume is very light so far today 6-14-10 (see http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX), so, the upcycle since 6-8-10's 1042.17 cycle low (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=) probably didn't peak yet. However, trading long now, partly due to the BP oil spill situation, is risky. One should keep a close eye on BP now.

Also, the five day SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very bearish (Wall of Worry collapsed, VIX fell much more than SPX rose in recent days), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.

Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's 1102.83 upside gap/magnet, 5 day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.

Retail Sales Dip 1.2% in May, Missing Estimates

Retail Sales Dip 1.2% in May, Missing Estimates at Barron's Online

SPX's Elliott Wave Count Since 6-8-10's 1042.17 Cycle Low

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave Count Since 6-8-10's 1042.17 Cycle Low, refer to five day intra day candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. Since 6-8-10's 1042.17 cycle low SPX has done an up down up down pattern, with today's sharp decline probably being a Wave 4 down type of move.

So, SPX will probably experience a sharp Wave 5 up type of move tomorrow/the next few days (target 1105ish), and, watch the 1102.83 upside gap from 6-4-10's open the next few days. I'll probably be looking to trade SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) long via SPY the next few days. The five day WMT/XOM Lead Indicators are/closed extremely/very bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=xom,wmt,^djusfn.

A Busted 'Bailout and Stimulate' Formula

A Busted 'Bailout and Stimulate' Formula at Seeking Alpha

Lead Indicators Walmart (WMT) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) Have Bearish Charts

Lead Indicators Walmart (WMT) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, more than 3% of SPX's weighting is XOM, the most heavily weighted component) Have Bearish Charts, see WMT's Daily View candlestick chart one at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=wmt (WMT's second Weekly View chart is very bearish also) and XOM's at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=xom.

The five day WMT/XOM Lead Indicator charts correctly pointed to strength today 6-8-10, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=xom,wmt,^djusfn.