Wednesday, March 30, 2011

The US Dollar Appears to Have Bottomed


The US Dollar Appears to Have Bottomed, see the Daily and Weekly View charts at http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24usd. Since peaking at 88.71 in June 2010 (see the second Weekly View chart), the US Dollar has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern and an Elliott Wave inverse 12345 down up down up down pattern (pattern within a pattern), probably bottoming at 75.25 on March 22, 2011, though it still needs to follow through strongly to the upside and hit a clear buy signal/breakout.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Why Buy Quality Bonds/Bond ETFs?


Why Buy Quality Bonds/Bond ETFs? I'll give you a good reason, DEFLATION. The primary economic and stock market cycles for years to come are very likely to be deflationary. The SPX Super Bull Market since 1932 ended with a bearish double top in March 2000/October 2007, see .

Saturday, March 19, 2011

SPX Has An Elliott Wave 12345 Pattern From Late Wednesday Until Early Friday


SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=spx) Has An Elliott Wave 12345 (up down up down up) Pattern From Late Wednesday Until Very Early Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=w14%2Cw14%2Cw14%2Cfs&c=. Note the huge volume spike in the five day chart (link above) at Friday's open.

Also, SPX's daily candlestick chart looks bearish, see http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=spx. Watch SPX's downside gap at 1273.72 (created at Friday's open) on Monday.

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Largest SPX Component XOM Might Have Turned Bearish


Largest SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=spx) Component XOM (Exxon Mobil) Might Have Turned Bearish, see the Daily and Weekly candlestick charts at http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=xom. XOM has a short term week+ downtrend, and, the second Weekly View candlestick chart at the link above has a large bearish spike; it looks like XOM might have put in an important Intermediate Term Cycle High at 88.23.

Since XOM is currently about 3.80% of SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=spx), going from an uptrend to a downtrend is a substantial drag on SPX.

Also, other important components have turned bearish, like CSCO (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=csco), MSFT (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=msft), WMT (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=wmt), and, even AAPL (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=aapl) may struggle to exceed it's recent cycle high.

Lastly, the Financials/DJUSFN might have peaked recently, and, therefore, they might be leading to the downside, see http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=$djusfn. Ciao

Friday, March 4, 2011

Looks Like SPX Will Probably Fill the 1308.44 Downside Gap on Monday


Looks Like SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=spx) Will Probably Fill the 1308.44 Downside Gap on Monday, see the Short SPX ETF SH's five day intra day candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=w14,w14,w14,fs&c=&s=sh.

After peaking at 41.76 today 3-4-11 SH did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern (= Waves AB then ABC (= C)), finishing the session in Wave 5 Down. So, it looks like more SPX weakness is likely on Monday.

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Stock Market Rally - Where's the Money Coming From? How much is Left?